The Roberts Nomination, Part I: Judiciary Committee
The Judiciary Committee vote is in. Judge Roberts won approval 13-5, with all ten Republicans and three of the eight Democrats. Ranking Member Patrick Leahy (D-VT), Senator Herb Kohl (D-WI) and Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) crossed the aisle to support Judge Roberts.
A substantial number of prognosticators predicted a 10-8 straight party line vote. These range from major-league pundit Robert Novak to bloggers Marshall of Confirm Them, Dean of the Right Wing Think Tank, and Ellis Wyatt at Dump Dick Durbin. All of these missed by a solid 3 senators.
Daffyd Hugh formerly of Captain's Quarters, now with his own blog Big Lizards managed to do even worse, predicting that Roberts would win 17-1, with only Senator Kennedy voting against. He misses by a full 4 senators.
In a direct response to Daffyd's post, Matt Margolis of Blogs for Bush predicted the opposite -- at most one or two Democratic senators voting to confirm. Calling this a prediction of 11-7, Matt missed by only 2 senators. Intriguingly, he discusses six of the eight democrats specifically, and the two the he omits (Kohl and Feingold) both voted to confirm.
Finally, Mark Coffey of Decision '08 predicted six Democrats on the committee would vote against. This would correspond to 12-6, putting him only 1 senator from precision punditry. Well done, Mark.
Note: all of these predictions were made publicly after the bulk of the testimony of Judge Roberts before the Committee and before senators began to announce how they would vote, roughly between the fifteenth and nineteenth of this month.
A substantial number of prognosticators predicted a 10-8 straight party line vote. These range from major-league pundit Robert Novak to bloggers Marshall of Confirm Them, Dean of the Right Wing Think Tank, and Ellis Wyatt at Dump Dick Durbin. All of these missed by a solid 3 senators.
Daffyd Hugh formerly of Captain's Quarters, now with his own blog Big Lizards managed to do even worse, predicting that Roberts would win 17-1, with only Senator Kennedy voting against. He misses by a full 4 senators.
In a direct response to Daffyd's post, Matt Margolis of Blogs for Bush predicted the opposite -- at most one or two Democratic senators voting to confirm. Calling this a prediction of 11-7, Matt missed by only 2 senators. Intriguingly, he discusses six of the eight democrats specifically, and the two the he omits (Kohl and Feingold) both voted to confirm.
Finally, Mark Coffey of Decision '08 predicted six Democrats on the committee would vote against. This would correspond to 12-6, putting him only 1 senator from precision punditry. Well done, Mark.
Note: all of these predictions were made publicly after the bulk of the testimony of Judge Roberts before the Committee and before senators began to announce how they would vote, roughly between the fifteenth and nineteenth of this month.
posted by clint at 1:32 PM
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