The Roberts Nomination, Part II: Full Senate
John Roberts is now Chief Justice of the United States. (Senate roll call vote.) That he was confirmed comes as a surprise to no one, but the precise tally in the Senate (78-22) was harder to predict. Subtracting the easier prediction of 55 Republican senators voting to confirm, Senate Democrats split 23-22 in favor of Chief Justice Roberts. All predictions have been translated into a number of Democratic votes, on this basis, for ease of comparison.
Marshall of Confirm Them was quite pessimistic, predicting no more than 4 Democrats would vote to confirm. He misses by 19 Senators.
Alexander K. McClure of PoliPundit similarly predicted that only 5 (+/-2) Democrats would vote to confirm. He misses by 18 Senators.
Pat Buchanan on the inimitable McLaughlin Group predicted that only 7 Democrats would vote to confirm. He misses by 16 Senators.
Robert Novak predicted that fewer than 8 Democrats would vote to confirm. He misses by 15 Senators.
Dean of Right Wing Think Tank predicted that fifteen Democrats would vote to confirm. He misses by 8 Senators.
Though a less precise prediction, Eleanor Clift's statement on the McLaughlin Group that Roberts would get "at least half the Democrats on the Senate floor" is looking eerily good, given that he recieved 23/45 or one vote more than half. Incorporating her two predictions that he'd get 0/8 Democrats on the Judiciary committee but at least 23/45 on the floor, she predicted a range of 23-37, averaging 30 Democrats, putting her almost alone in predicting more votes to confirm than were actually recorded. She misses by 7 Senators.
Joy-Ann Reid of the Reid Report was much more precise, predicting that 17 Democrats would vote to confirm. She misses by 6 Senators.
Mark Coffey at Decision '08 and came even closer, predicting that 18 Democrats would vote to confirm. He misses by 5 Senators.
Daffyd Hugh of Big Lizards nailed this one, predicting the final tally would be in the range of 75-80 votes to confirm (20 to 25 Democrats). This puts him within Half a Senator. Congratulations, Daffyd.
One last punditary prediction to chew on: On his July 29th episode, John McLaughlin gave as his prediction of the week: "Judge Roberts will become the head of the Supreme Court -- Chief Justice." Recalling that this was over a month before Chief Justice Rehnquist died, and that the topic of the show was the nomination of Roberts for Associate Justice, this was quite an audacious prediction. Kudos, Mr. McLaughlin, for showing us how the pros do it.
Marshall of Confirm Them was quite pessimistic, predicting no more than 4 Democrats would vote to confirm. He misses by 19 Senators.
Alexander K. McClure of PoliPundit similarly predicted that only 5 (+/-2) Democrats would vote to confirm. He misses by 18 Senators.
Pat Buchanan on the inimitable McLaughlin Group predicted that only 7 Democrats would vote to confirm. He misses by 16 Senators.
Robert Novak predicted that fewer than 8 Democrats would vote to confirm. He misses by 15 Senators.
Dean of Right Wing Think Tank predicted that fifteen Democrats would vote to confirm. He misses by 8 Senators.
Though a less precise prediction, Eleanor Clift's statement on the McLaughlin Group that Roberts would get "at least half the Democrats on the Senate floor" is looking eerily good, given that he recieved 23/45 or one vote more than half. Incorporating her two predictions that he'd get 0/8 Democrats on the Judiciary committee but at least 23/45 on the floor, she predicted a range of 23-37, averaging 30 Democrats, putting her almost alone in predicting more votes to confirm than were actually recorded. She misses by 7 Senators.
Joy-Ann Reid of the Reid Report was much more precise, predicting that 17 Democrats would vote to confirm. She misses by 6 Senators.
Mark Coffey at Decision '08 and came even closer, predicting that 18 Democrats would vote to confirm. He misses by 5 Senators.
Daffyd Hugh of Big Lizards nailed this one, predicting the final tally would be in the range of 75-80 votes to confirm (20 to 25 Democrats). This puts him within Half a Senator. Congratulations, Daffyd.
One last punditary prediction to chew on: On his July 29th episode, John McLaughlin gave as his prediction of the week: "Judge Roberts will become the head of the Supreme Court -- Chief Justice." Recalling that this was over a month before Chief Justice Rehnquist died, and that the topic of the show was the nomination of Roberts for Associate Justice, this was quite an audacious prediction. Kudos, Mr. McLaughlin, for showing us how the pros do it.
posted by clint at 12:57 PM
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